At present, the research and development of new energy and renewable energy, and seeking advanced methods to improve energy efficiency have become the primary issues of common global concern. For a country with a large energy production and consumption, my country has both the demand for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the need for energy growth to support economic development. It is urgent to vigorously develop the energy storage industry. Under the new background that the country is forming a new development pattern of energy transformation and the "dual carbon" goal, a number of favorable policies for energy storage in my country have been introduced one after another, and the intensity and intensity of support for the sustainable development of energy storage have reached an unprecedented high. The dual promotion of policies and markets not only brings new opportunities for the energy storage industry, but also faces new problems and challenges.
The east wind of the trillion-dollar energy storage market has arrived
01
The energy storage policy system is gradually being established
Clarify the direction of sustainable development of the industry
In 2021, the central document clarified for the first time that energy storage is a key supporting technology for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, laying the foundation for the long-term development of energy storage. From the national level, direct policies for energy storage have been introduced intensively: the second guideline for new energy storage clarifies the development goals and key tasks of energy storage; the Management Specification for New Energy Storage Projects (Interim) and Electrochemical Energy Storage Power Stations The promulgation of the Interim Measures for Safety Management (Draft for Comment) will form a management system for the entire life cycle and process of energy storage to escort the sustainable development of energy storage; The introduction of "new trading varieties", the improvement of the cost sharing mechanism, and the establishment of a competitive market price mechanism have opened up market benefits for energy storage; the market-oriented reform of electricity prices will further widen the price gap between peaks and valleys, which will lead to more new application models. .
In March 2022, the National Energy Administration and others officially released the "14th Five-Year Plan" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan, which mainly includes (1) technical route, (2) industrial chain layout, and (3) development of energy storage development. Goals (support the new power system), (4) development path (explore the market-oriented system and mechanism of energy storage), (5) management system (policy guarantee), etc. As a guiding document to promote the high-quality development of the new energy storage industry during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, the plan is also an important basis for developing new energy storage technologies and industrial innovation demonstrations, and optimizing the development layout of new energy storage, indicating industry innovation and sustainable development. direction. It is worth noting that the "Plan" encourages all localities to drive technological progress and industrial upgrading through demonstration applications in the development of new energy storage, promote the improvement of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of energy storage, and support the construction of high-tech industrial bases for energy storage.
02
Application scenarios are constantly enriched
Market demand to be released
Under the "dual carbon" vision, energy storage plays an important role in promoting the transformation of the energy structure to a low carbon in terms of regulating peak electricity consumption and improving electricity consumption efficiency. With the significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy power generation around the world, the development of new energy has created a demand for energy storage. The application scenarios of energy storage mainly include the power supply side, the user side and the grid side. The demand for energy storage on the user side has increased, and the application scenarios have continued to expand. The application demand of user-side energy storage in virtual aggregation, data center, 5G base station, port shore power and other scenarios will also be greatly increased, and a series of business model innovations will be brought about.
Power grid industry insiders said that the increase in the proportion of new energy grid-connected is bringing new security challenges to the power system. As a security power source, new energy storage urgently needs to develop in the direction of large-scale, medium and long-term cycle, and easy dispatch. The implementation of shared energy storage on the grid side is not only conducive to the consumption and integration of new energy, but also to the improvement of energy storage projects. The rate of return will shorten the return period of investment to a certain extent. With the continuous improvement of the electricity market mechanism and the more mature trading varieties and rules, the future of grid-side shared energy storage is worth looking forward to.
Only from the demand side, in the context of accelerated grid integration of photovoltaic and wind power generation, a corresponding supporting energy storage system is required to cope with the fluctuation of power generation. The rapid development of wind power and photovoltaic industries will promote the development of large-capacity energy storage industry. Energy storage technology solves the problems of randomness and volatility of new energy power generation to a large extent, can achieve smooth output of new energy power generation, and can effectively adjust the changes in grid voltage, frequency and phase caused by new energy power generation, so that large-scale Wind and photovoltaic power generation can be easily and reliably integrated into the conventional grid. In addition, the demand for 5G base station construction also promotes the further increase in the demand for energy storage lithium batteries. It is comprehensively estimated that the newly installed capacity of global energy storage lithium battery is expected to reach 163Gwh (gigawatt hours) in 2025, and the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2021 to 2025 is 41%.
New energy storage technology and safety restrict industrial development
New energy storage technology still needs to be broken through
Marketization mechanism needs to be further improved
The new energy storage technology is still in the development stage, and the reliability, service life and manufacturing cost of various new energy storage systems need to be broken through. Research on key core technologies, equipment and integrated optimization design of sodium-ion batteries, new lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, compressed air, hydrogen (ammonia) energy storage, etc. The research and development of new-generation high-energy-density energy storage technologies such as metal batteries, solid-state lithium-ion batteries, and metal-air batteries, as well as breakthroughs in key technologies such as battery intrinsic safety control, electrochemical energy storage system safety early warning, and overall safety design of energy storage power stations, are still All parties need to increase investment in research and development of new energy storage technologies, promote the development of diversified technologies, actively carry out demonstration applications of advanced energy storage technologies, and speed up the transformation of innovative achievements.
In the current rapid development of the energy storage industry, energy storage batteries are one of the key areas for the layout of listed companies. With the development of electric vehicles, the cost of batteries is gradually decreasing and the maturity is increasing day by day. In the future, more high-efficiency energy storage batteries will be needed to replace traditional internal combustion engines. In terms of scale, energy storage batteries are in the stage of development from 0 to 1, and their gross profit margin is relatively high due to their small volume. In addition, with the gradual maturity of the industrial chain, sodium batteries are expected to be gradually applied in the field of large-scale energy storage with their low-cost advantages in 5-10 years. For the short-term differentiated competition of energy storage batteries, companies can play their respective advantages, but in the medium and long term, they are still testing the key core technologies and costs of energy storage batteries.
In addition, from a long-term perspective, energy storage power stations should recover investment costs through market-based mechanisms by participating in the power market. Although the energy storage industry has entered a rapid development, in the main application fields such as peak regulation and frequency regulation, energy storage has not yet formed a stable and reasonable income model, which restricts the development of energy storage. From the perspective of foreign experience, energy storage, as a rapid response resource, has proven to be very advantageous and competitive in foreign markets. With the increasing market demand for primary frequency regulation, the primary frequency regulation market is expected to become a new value growth point for independent energy storage. The further improvement of the market mechanism is the top priority for the energy storage industry to establish a sustainable development track. For energy storage people, the key to the stability of the energy storage industry is to provide effective support for the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, so that it can play its due market value in the process of energy transformation.
Accidents of various types of energy storage occur frequently
Security restricts industrial development
Energy storage safety is not only related to the healthy development of the energy storage industry, but also to the high-quality construction and stable operation of a new power system with new energy as the main body. According to incomplete statistics, there will be 9 energy storage safety accidents in the world in 2021. At the beginning of 2022, three more battery-related fire accidents occurred in South Korea. In recent years, the frequent explosion accidents of energy storage power stations at home and abroad have not only restricted the large-scale development of energy storage, but also exacerbated the public's doubts about the safety of energy storage.
The energy storage safety problem is a systemic problem, which is often caused by a certain factor and evolves through the interaction of multiple factors, which eventually leads to the fire or explosion of the energy storage. According to industry insiders, the direct causes of energy storage safety accidents are divided into battery body failures, external excitation sources, operating environment factors, and management system failures. Unsafe energy storage facilities and imperfect technical standards are the main reasons for the frequent occurrence of various accidents in energy storage.
Energy storage security is a challenge facing the world. Safety restricts the development of the industry, summarizing the safety accidents of energy storage and analyzing their causes are of great significance for promoting the scientific and safe development of the energy storage industry. Establishing and improving an authoritative, transparent and unified national or provincial real-time monitoring platform for safety management of energy storage systems, and improving the effectiveness of energy storage system safety supervision by means of information technology may become an effective means of ensuring energy storage safety in the future. It is believed that with the joint efforts of all parties in the future, the safety of energy storage will be effectively guaranteed, and the energy storage industry will usher in more rapid development.
Development is inseparable from challenges. The energy storage industry is accelerating, national support policies are frequently introduced, and financial capital is accelerating its integration into the energy storage track. The curtain of our golden age has gradually opened. With the step-by-step implementation of policies, my country's energy storage industry can rapidly grow into an emerging strategic industry with important global influence, and will greatly promote the large-scale development of domestic new energy.
The huge development potential of the energy storage industry will inevitably lead to fierce competition in the market. In the past, central and state-owned enterprises represented by State Grid, China Southern Power Grid, National Energy Group, State Power Investment Corporation, Huaneng, Huadian, Three Gorges Group, etc. have entered the energy storage industry chain. Industry chain enterprises strong alliance combine. In the future, major enterprises will achieve complementary advantages in competition and cooperation, collaborative development, and jointly promote the positive and sustainable development of the industry.
